Flash Floods As Bertha Heads To Britain

Heavy rain has caused flash flooding in parts of the UK - and forecasters are warning of further storms on Sunday as the remnants of Hurricane Bertha hit.

The Met Office says Bertha's transition from a tropical to an extra-tropical storm is a "particularly hard one to forecast" but it is expected to affect the UK tomorrow.

Residents had to be evacuated after heavy rain flooded several streets in the Lincolnshire town of Louth on Friday.

Lightning hits Eggborough Power Station in Yorkshire. Pic: Phil Lowe

Downpours also led to waterlogged roads in and around York and in Maidstone, Kent.

There were reports of power outages in Cambridgeshire, where the A14 was flooded.

Environment Agency flood warnings and alerts remain in place in numerous parts of the country.

A flash flood following heavy rain in Maidstone, Kent

Friday's rainy weather was unconnected to Hurricane Bertha, which has been travelling across the Atlantic.

Bertha wreaked havoc in the Caribbean islands with gusts of more than 90mph, leaving thousands of homes without power.

Chief meteorologist Paul Gundersen said: "There is still some uncertainty surrounding this weekend's weather, with the potential for heavy rainfall, strong coastal winds and large waves on Sunday.

There could be more floods on Sunday

"However, there is still a chance that the system may pass to the south of the country, giving the UK a brighter day.

"Rain and strong winds may well bring disruption, especially across southern parts of the UK, with the potential for more than 50mm of rain and coastal gusts of over 60mph."

Environment Agency flood risk manager, Craig Woolhouse, said: "Heavy rain on Sunday may lead to localised surface water flooding in some parts of England and Wales.

"On Sunday and Monday a combination of high spring tides and strong westerly winds brings a risk of large waves and spray and possible flooding to the South West coast of England and along the Severn Estuary."

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Laughing Gas Craze 'Fuelled By Web Videos'

A laughing gas "craze" sweeping the UK is being fuelled by internet videos which glamorise use of the chemical, council leaders say.

"Hauls" of canisters are confiscated from UK streets every night, with one London council - Hackney - seizing 1,200 on one Saturday alone.  

Officials in Norfolk, Hertfordshire and Thames Valley have also reported increasing numbers of canisters being found.

Council leaders are so concerned they have launched a campaign to highlight the dangers of the chemical.

Thousands of canisters are seized every weekend (pic Rob Brewer/Flickr)

In particular, the Local Government Association (LGA) is calling for web giants, such as YouTube, to crack down on internet videos which promote use of laughing gas.

The Association, which represents around 400 councils in England and Wales, said it was "deeply disturbing" that people widely view nitrous oxide as a "safe" legal high.

While inhaling nitrous oxide is not illegal, council officers are able to seize canisters under unauthorised street trading regulations.

The LGA has raised concerns that a number of children inhaling the chemical have emerged on the internet, "glamorising" the drug.

It said that the chemical - which is regularly taken at nightspots, festivals and parties - has been linked to a number of deaths.

Abusing nitrous oxide can lead to oxygen deprivation resulting in loss of blood pressure, fainting and even heart attacks, the LGA said.

The Association estimated that it is used by almost half a million young people across the country. 

"It is deeply disturbing that this drug, which can be highly dangerous, is still widely viewed as safe," said Katie Hall, chairwoman of the LGA's Community Wellbeing Board.

"It is imperative that users understand just how harmful it can be. This gas can kill and much more needs to be done to get this message across.

"We are particularly concerned about internet pages and uploaded clips which are effectively 'promoting' this as a harmless drug.

"The web giants must do more to crack down on this, they cannot simply sit on their hands and ignore what is happening on their own sites.

"We are calling on the big internet corporations to step up to the plate and show responsibility by providing health warnings and links to drug awareness charities."

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Breast Cancer Drug 'Too Expensive' For NHS

By Adele Robinson, Sky News Correspondent

A life-extending breast cancer drug has been rejected for routine use by the NHS because it is "too expensive".

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (Nice) has issued a final draft blaming the high price for making it "impossible to recommend".

The drug, Kadcyla, is known to increase life expectancy by an average of around six months, with minimum side effects.

It treats people with HER2-positive breast cancer that has spread to other parts of the body.

Kim Mawby, 45, has been trialling the drug for three years after being diagnosed with breast cancer.

She was initially given six months to live but now lives a normal life with her husband and three children.

Kim Mawby says the drug has given her a normal life

"I think it costs about £6,000 pounds a month. A lot of people are going to say that's too much money but I don't think you can put a price on someone's life.

"When I wake up I do feel incredibly lucky that I am still here, that I am able to just get up and go to work, see the kids off to school.

"I do sit back and think 'wow, if it wasn't for this drug I wouldn't be watching (my son) going to school on his first day.'"

Sir Andrew Dillon, Chief Executive of Nice, says the cost of the drug works out at £90,000 per patient, per year.

"This drug is so expensive that it's way beyond even that additional flexibility that we can offer.

Jennifer Cozzone, from Roche, says Kadcyla is good value for money

"I can't negotiate the price with the manufacturer. It's entirely in Roche's hands, the manufacturer's hands, now. They know what they need to do."

However, Roche says the price reflects the value it provides to patients.

Jennifer Cozzone, from Roche, told Sky News that Nice is the first organisation to reject the drug, demonstrating a system in the UK that is broken.

"Every other country, including countries nearby like Norway or Sweden or Switzerland, who have very similar economies to ours, have considered Kadcyla to be good value for money and made it available routinely at very similar prices to what we're talking about here."

A campaign made breast cancer drug Herceptin more widely available

Nice says other countries have different arrangements for funding pharmaceuticals.

Kadcyla is available to some patients in the UK through the Cancer Drugs Fund but Nice says that is not a "long term mechanism".

A Department of Health spokesperson said: "Nice is an independent expert body that is responsible for evaluating what drugs should be available from the NHS, taking into account cost, demand and effectiveness.

"Kadcyla will still be available to patients through the Cancer Drugs Fund if their doctor thinks it is right for them and we remain open to discussions with the manufacturer about the price of Kadcyla to the NHS."

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Lib Dems 'To Stop Drug Users Going To Jail'

By Joanna Simpson, Sky News Reporter

The Liberal Democrats are announcing that if they win the next General Election they will stop people found in possession of drugs for personal use being sent to jail.

The manifesto pledge will state that if no other offence has been committed an alternative sentence should be given instead of a prison term.

The effective decriminalisation they say would be more effective as it should be regarded as a health issue therefore the drugs and alcohol policy would be removed from the Home Office brief and given to the Department of Health.

The party states that each year more than 1,000 people in England in Wales are jailed for possession of drugs for their own personal use.

It says the £5m would be better spent tackling addiction in the community as many of those imprisoned have a medical problem.

Civil penalties such as warnings or fines could be among those imposed instead or criminal cautions, probation or community service.

Currently the maximum penalty for possession of a Class A drug in the UK is seven years in prison. For a Class B drug it's up to five years and Class C up to two years.

For all classes of drugs there can also be an unlimited fine given either as an alternative or in addition to the jail term.

In 2012, the UK Drug Policy Commission published a report called "A Fresh Approach to Drugs".

It was based on a six-year study which recommended that possession of certain drugs for personal use should become a civil rather than a criminal offence.

The independent advisory body, which included scientists and senior police officers, wrote: "The evidence from other countries that have done this is that it would not necessarily lead to any significant increase in use, while providing opportunities to address some of the harms associated with existing drug laws."

The Home Secretary Theresa May rejected it, telling MPs: "People can die as a result of taking drugs, and significant mental health problems can arise."

The report stated that the UK has 2,000 drug-related deaths each year and more than 380,000 problem drug users.

Support services warn that criminalising people means those in need may be reluctant to ask for help.

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Woman Arrested After Elderly People 'Poisoned'

A woman has been arrested for "administering a noxious substance" after 16 people fell ill at a care home, police have said.

The 23-year-old was held after a number of people at Goldfield Court in West Bromwich were taken ill with what police described as food poisoning symptoms.

Four of the people were taken to hospital for treatment, with two being kept in overnight.

The woman was arrested on Monday and is now at a secure unit after she was released on bail while investigations continue, a force spokeswoman said.

West Midlands Police spokeswoman Keiley Gartland said: "Further tests and enquires are underway to determine the exact nature and cause of the illness.

"An individual has been arrested and is currently assisting the police with their enquires.

"Anyone with information in relation to the investigation should contact Sandwell Police by dialling 101, anyone with any concerns should contact the extra care unit."

Goldfield Court, which is run by Housing & Care 21, is described as  "extra care housing" for older people. There are 93 flats at the site.

In a statement issued on its website, Housing & Care 21 confirmed a care worker had been suspended.

It said: "Housing and Care 21 can confirm that a care worker has been suspended from Goldfield independent living scheme in West Bromwich.

"We are providing information and assistance to the police and Sandwell Social Services and will support them with any further investigation.

"Our thoughts are with both residents and staff at the Goldfield community and we will ensure they are fully supported during this difficult time."

Police said they were working with Goldfield Court's management and with Sandwell social services department.

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British Students Stabbed To Death In Borneo

Two British medical students have been stabbed to death after leaving a bar in the Borneo city where they were on a hospital placement.

The two men, named by Newcastle University as Neil Dalton and Aidan Brunger, both 22, died after they were attacked by a group of men in Kuching.

The friends were reportedly followed in a car and knifed as they returned to a backpacker lodge from the bar, where a row had earlier taken place over noise.

Four men have been arrested following the murders in the Jalan Padungan district.

The friends were on a medical placement in Borneo's Sarawak state

The fourth-year students were in the Malaysian part of the island in Sarawak province on attachment to a hospital in Kuching, the university's acting vice-chancellor Professor Tony Stevenson said.

Prof Stevenson said in a statement: "We were informed this morning of the very sad news that two of our fourth-year medical students working at a hospital in Kuching, Borneo, have been tragically killed.

"Neil Dalton and Aidan Brunger, both 22, were on a six-week work placement, along with five other medical students, to put the skills they had learnt during their time here at the university into practice.

Aidan Brunger's family released a photo showing him at his Borneo hospital

"This has come as a huge shock to us all and our thoughts are with their families and friends at this very difficult time.

"Two of our members of staff are flying out to Kuching as soon as possible and we are working closely with the British high commissioner to support the other students and to co-ordinate their return to the UK."

The students - both keen sportsmen - were due to finish their placement on Friday.

Mr Dalton was from Ambergate, Derbyshire, had achieved four A* grades in his A-levels and had been featured in the local paper when he took part in a sponsored bike ride for the Alzheimer's Society, the Derby Telegraph reported. 

Mr Brunger, from Gillingham, took part in the 2013 Great North Run in Newcastle, raising money for Prostate Cancer UK.

Professor Jane Calvert, Dean of Undergraduate Studies for Newcastle University Medical School, said the students were "excellent" and "highly committed" and were both doing well in their studies.

Sarawak Deputy Police Commissioner Datuk Dr Chai Khin Chung said the arrests were made two hours after the 4.15am attack, the Malaysian State News Agency Bernama reported.

A knife was also recovered and a Perodua Viva car allegedly used in the attack has been seized.

Dr Chai told a news conference that two of the suspects have criminal records for drug abuse and armed robbery.

He also said a police forensic team found the first victim lying face down on the road with two stab wounds in the chest and two in the back.

The second victim was lying on a path, about two metres from the first victim, with a single stab wound to his chest.

The Borneo Post reported that they were attacked by a group of men as they made their way back to a backpacker lodge from the Travillion bar, where they had apparently been accused of making too much noise.

The students' bodies are at Sarawak General Hospital for post-mortem examinations.

An FCO spokesman said: "We are providing consular assistance to their families at this difficult time."

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Clegg Sides With Warsi Over Israel Arms Exports

PM's Response To Warsi's Resignation In Full

Updated: 5:06pm UK, Tuesday 05 August 2014

Prime Minister David Cameron has replied to Baroness Warsi's resignation over the Gaza conflict, saying the Government supports Israel's right to defend itself, but has consistently made clear its concerns over civilian casualties.

Here is the full wording of the PM's letter of response to Baroness Warsi:

Dear Sayeeda,

Thank you for your letter today, in which you set out your reasons for resigning from the Government. I was sorry to receive this.

I realise that this must not have been an easy decision for you to make and very much regret that we were not able to speak about your decision beforehand.

I understand your strength of feeling on the current crisis in the Middle East - the situation in Gaza is intolerable. Our policy has always been consistently clear: we support a negotiated two state solution as the only way to resolve this conflict once and for all and to allow Israelis and Palestinians to live safely in peace.

Of course, we believe that Israel has the right to defend itself. But we have consistently made clear our grave concerns about the heavy toll of civilian casualties and have called on Israel to exercise restraint, and to find ways to bring this fighting to an end.

As part of that, we have consistently called for an immediate and unconditional humanitarian ceasefire.

More widely, I would like to take this opportunity to let you know how grateful I am for the contribution you have made to the Conservative Front Bench, both in Opposition and in Government, over seven years' continuous service.

As the Minister for Faith and Communities, working with Eric Pickles in the Department for Communities and Local Government, you played an important role in the Government's integration agenda - building more united communities, tackling hate crime, harnessing the power of faith groups and championing Britain's common heritage.

At the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, your hard work in tackling persecution around the world, between faiths and within faiths, has had a lasting impact, as has your work to put the UK at the heart of the global Islamic Finance system.

You can also take pride in how you have built relationships with the countries and leaders of Central Asia, and particularly the role you have played supporting democracy and women's rights in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Perhaps most importantly, I would like you to know how much I have personally appreciated your support and friendship over the years, and your commitment to our Party and the Government. You were one of the early supporters of my leadership campaign in 2005, something for which I remain grateful.

We have been through a great deal together since then and I will never forget how proud we both were when, in May 2010, you joined the Cabinet as Chairman of the Conservative Party.

You can take pride in your achievements in Government and, especially, for being the first Muslim woman in any British Cabinet. I appreciate your assurance of support in the months and years to come and I hope that you will always feel able to raise any issue with me at any time.

This comes with my thanks, and best wishes for the future.

Yours ever,

David

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PM Defends Gaza Stance After Warsi Resigns

The Prime Minister has set out the UK's position on the conflict in Gaza after Baroness Warsi hit out at the Government's stance in a letter of resignation.

Lady Warsi said the Government's "approach and language" during the month-long conflict in Gaza has been "morally indefensible".

And she added: "I always said long after life in politics I must be able to stand by the decisions I took or the decisions I supported. By staying in Government at this time I do not feel I can be sure of that."

In a caustic appraisal of David Cameron's policy on the Middle East Peace Process she said it had caused significant damage to Britain's international standing.

Lady Warsi announced her resignation on Twitter

She later told reporters she had tried to convince the Government its position on Gaza was not in Britain's interests but felt she was making no progress and had to resign "on a point of principle".

In his response, the Prime Minister said he regretted her decision, but understood her "strength of feeling on the current crisis in the Middle East".

Baroness Warsi's resignation is a significant blow to the Conservatives

He said the Government supports Israel's right to defend itself, while consistently making clear its "grave concerns" over civilian casualties.

The Prime Minister added: "We have consistently called for an immediate and unconditional humanitarian ceasefire."

Lady Warsi's resignation is a serious blow to the Conservatives and will intensify pressure on Mr Cameron, who is out of the country on holiday, to be firmer in his condemnation of Israel.

She is considered an asset to the Tories and has been a prominent member of David Cameron's Government, becoming the first Muslim to sit in the Cabinet. She was Conservative Party chairman and played a large part in the 2010 campaign.

She wrote in her resignation letter: "My view has been that our policy in relation to the Middle East Peace Process generally but more recently our approach and language during the current crisis in Gaza is morally indefensible, is not in Britain's national interest and will have a long term detrimental impact on our reputation internationally and domestically."

She has posted a number of tweets condeming Israel's actions

Lady Warsi said there was also concern in the Foreign Office about the departure of William Hague as Foreign Secretary - he has been replaced by Philip Hammond - and the "way recent decisions have been made".

She announced her departure on Twitter, where she has been increasingly vocal in her condemnation of Israel's actions. Eleven days ago she wrote: "Can people stop trying to justify the killing of children. Whatever our politics there can never be justification, surely only regret #Gaza."

It follows Mr Cameron's failure on Monday to back the United Nations' position over the shelling of a UN-run school where Palestinian refugees were sheltering from the violence, killing at least 10 people.

Lady Warsi has condemned the attacks that have killed and injured children

UN Secretary General Ban-Ki-moon called the attack "a moral outrage and a criminal act". When asked, Mr Cameron would say only that it was "an appalling loss of life".

There has also been increasing criticism over the £42m of arms exports licences British defence manufacturers have with Israel since 2010 to supply ammunition, drones and armoured vehicles.

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has called on the Government to suspend the export licences, saying Lady Warsi had raised some important questions over UK policy.

The Government has agreed to review the licences, although has not made any moves towards a suspension.

Lady Warsi's highly critical resignation letter

:: After our Twitter Q&A yesterday with Palestinian teenager Farah Baker, Sky News held a similar Q&A with someone on the Israeli side - schoolteacher Adele Raemer, who lives 2km from the border with Gaza.

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Scotland's Future Up For Debate In TV Contest

By James Matthews, Scotland Correspondent

The two men leading the fight for Scotland's future will go head to head in a TV debate tonight.

First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond will face Alistair Darling MP, leader of the Better Together campaign, with just over six weeks to go until the September 18 referendum on independence.

Broadcast by STV, it is the first such encounter between the pair during the campaign and kicks off its closing stages. 

Alex Salmond had initially refused to face Mr Darling, instead insisting he would only take on David Cameron. The Prime Minister has consistently refused the offer. 

Tonight's two-hour debate will take place at the Royal Conservatoire of Scotland in Glasgow and the men will cross-examine each other, as well as take audience questions.

Alex Salmond (L) will go head-to-head with Alistair Darling

Alistair Darling's Better Together campaign has consistently been ahead in the polls and he is expected to press the First Minister for answers on independence.

Blair McDougall, his campaign director, said: "Voters in Scotland have been listening to the independence debate for over two years now.

"Surely if Alex Salmond had convincing answers on the details of separation, we would have heard them by now.

"Scots tuning in deserve to finally get straight answers from Mr Salmond to the questions they have been asking. What would separation mean for our pound, pensions and public services?

"Unlike the leaders' debates in the 2010 General Election, this debate isn't a job interview between candidates.

"Instead, it is a discussion about what separation would mean for our children and grandchildren's futures."

The big vote on Scotland's future is just weeks away

For Alex Salmond, the TV debate and similar events that are expected to follow, present an opportunity to strive for the game-changing moment that his campaign needs to turn the polls around.

Blair Jenkins, chief executive of the Yes campaign, said: "Independence is the opportunity of a lifetime for the people of Scotland, and the Yes campaign are looking forward immensely to the debate.

"We know that Scotland is one of the richest countries in the world, wealthier than the UK, France and Japan, and only the powers offered by a Yes vote will enable us to make this wealth work better for everyone in Scotland.

"Viewers will get the chance to hear why decisions made on Scotland's future should be taken here in Scotland.

"Our experience is that most undecided voters choose Yes when they hear both sides of the debate, and therefore we believe the mass TV audience will benefit our positive campaign.

"We also believe that the No campaign have a problem with both the negativity of their message and the unpopularity of their messengers."

On the morning of the debate, the three main UK party leaders announced they had signed a pledge to increase the powers of the Scottish Parliament. 

David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg have all put their name to a declaration made earlier this year by their parties' Scottish leaders to guarantee an increase in Scotland's powers under devolution.

It is a pre-debate move to bolster Alistair Darling before the big event and protect 'their man' against accusations that increased devolution is an empty promise that won't be delivered.

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Ex-William Hill Chief Backs Scottish Yes Vote

By Mark Kleinman, City Editor

The former boss of Britain's biggest bookmaker will declare his support on Tuesday for an independent Scotland, arguing that pro-union campaigners have been guilty of "political posturing" whose arguments lack economic logic.

Sky News has learnt that Ralph Topping, who stepped down as chief executive of William Hill last week, is to become one of the most prominent business leaders so far to back a 'Yes' vote in next month's referendum.

Sources said that Mr Topping, who commuted to William Hill's head office from his home in Scotland until he stepped down on July 31, would disclose his support for secession in an opinion piece for a national newspaper.

He is understood to argue in the article that Scotland's largest financial institutions would be unlikely to move their headquarters south of the border if there was a vote in favour of independence.

Mr Topping is also expected to make a case for the "business sense" of a currency union and criticise the "political posturing" of George Osborne, the Chancellor, who has insisted that Scotland would forfeit the right to have sterling as its currency.

"Statistics show that Scotland is fiscally stronger, and investment flows are stronger, even without North Sea oil. We are not talking about South Sudan here and that's what he wants to argue," a friend of Mr Topping told Sky News.

His support will come ahead of Tuesday's inaugural televised debate between Alex Salmond, the Scottish First Minister, and Alastair Darling, the former Chancellor, who is spearheading the Better Together campaign.

The encounter is being depicted as a crucial staging-post in the pre-referendum battle, with the latest opinion polls showing support for the 'Yes' campaign at around 40% and opponents at approximately 46%.

Mr Topping, who began his career at a Glasgow bookie in 1970, had been with William Hill for 29 years, including six as chief executive.

His declaration of support for Scottish independence will be made in a personal capacity, with his former employer maintaining a steadfastly neutral position on the vote, which will take place on September 18.

Mr Topping, who is also a director of the Scottish Football Association, is understood not to be a member of any political party.

William Hill operates hundreds of outlets in Scotland, accounting for a significant proportion of its UK-wide estate of roughly 2400 betting shops.

The company is understood to have been keen for Mr Topping to delay making his views public until after his retirement.

Few leaders of major British companies with operations on both sides of the border have hinted at personal views about the independence vote.

However, some businesses - including Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Standard Life - have used annual reports or results statements to flag potential risks, particularly in the absence of confirmation that a currency union would exist on day one in the life of an independent Scotland.

On Monday, Sir George Mathewson, the former RBS chief executive, wrote in the Financial Times that warnings that the size of Scotland's banking system would make independence impossible were "unionist scaremongering".

The emergence of Mr Topping's support for the 'Yes' campaign comes weeks after William Hill took a £400,000 bet from a customer on a 'No' vote at odds of 1/4.

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World War One And The 'Short-War Illusion'

By Professor David Stevenson

In August 1914 German Emperor Wilhelm II famously promised to his departing troops that they would return before the autumn leaves fell.

Yet most of Europe's military chiefs did not, in fact, expect a short war.

The Chief of the German General Staff had predicted a struggle lasting between 18 months and two years. His French and Austrian opposite numbers took a similar view.

A clash between two great alliance blocs, each fielding armies that numbered millions and were supported by the resources of entire nations, would not be settled in weeks. 

Even the direst military predictions, however, failed to foresee a conflict lasting four and a half years that would claim at least 10 million lives.

Lord Kitchener warned the Cabinet of a drawn-out bloodbath in Europe

And civilian politicians seem not to have been informed about the military leaders' pessimism.

When Europe's governments decided for war, they expected heavy casualties, but nothing resembling what actually occurred.

Lord Kitchener, the colonial hero who was brought in as Britain's Secretary of State for War, stunned the Cabinet by warning them to prepare for a three-year bloodbath.

And as for members of the ordinary public, evidence from diaries and letters suggests that many really did expect a struggle that would last only a few months.

Newspaper sellers in the run-up to war on August 1, 1914

Much of this optimism may have been wishful thinking. And research by historians has made clear that 'war enthusiasm' was skin-deep.

To be sure, there was excitement, and cheering crowds gathered round the royal palaces in Berlin and London, but these demonstrations were quite small, composed mostly of well-to-do young men, and most prominent after war had been declared.

Up until then, pacifist and anti-war protests rivalled them - for example in Trafalgar Square as late as Sunday August 2, only two days before Britain came in.

British soldiers in a shallow trench during the Battle of the Somme

On 31 July the London Stock Exchange was closed for the first time in its history, due to a run on the Bank of England's gold reserves and sell-offs of government bonds across Europe, while both in Britain and on the Continent queues formed outside savings banks and there was panic food-buying.

Although The Times consistently advocated British intervention, The Manchester Guardian remained unconvinced, and many civilian diarists expressed anxiety and foreboding.

In all the combatant countries political parties suspended their differences for the duration of the war effort.

But it seems to have been only later, once reports came in of heavy fighting and massive casualties, that a deeper pro-war consensus formed on both sides.

The public had not begun this business, but now they were in it they would see it through.

In Britain, hundreds of thousands flocked to the recruiting offices in late August and September. Although the volunteers had many motives, patriotism was certainly one of them.

And even after the campaigning bogged down into opposing lines of trenches, many still (without the benefit of hindsight) expected it to carry on for only a few more months. The short-war illusion did not end in 1914.

:: Professor David Stevenson is the author of With Our Backs To The Wall: Victory And Defeat in 1918, and 1914-1918: The History Of The First World War. He teaches at London School of Economics & Political Science

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Ceremonies To Mark 100 Years Since WW1

World War One And The 'Short-War Illusion'

Updated: 3:31am UK, Monday 04 August 2014

By Professor David Stevenson

In August 1914 German Emperor Wilhelm II famously promised to his departing troops that they would return before the autumn leaves fell.

Yet most of Europe's military chiefs did not, in fact, expect a short war.

The Chief of the German General Staff had predicted a struggle lasting between 18 months and two years. His French and Austrian opposite numbers took a similar view.

A clash between two great alliance blocs, each fielding armies that numbered millions and were supported by the resources of entire nations, would not be settled in weeks. 

Even the direst military predictions, however, failed to foresee a conflict lasting four and a half years that would claim at least 10 million lives.

And civilian politicians seem not to have been informed about the military leaders' pessimism.

When Europe's governments decided for war, they expected heavy casualties, but nothing resembling what actually occurred.

Lord Kitchener, the colonial hero who was brought in as Britain's Secretary of State for War, stunned the Cabinet by warning them to prepare for a three-year bloodbath.

And as for members of the ordinary public, evidence from diaries and letters suggests that many really did expect a struggle that would last only a few months.

Much of this optimism may have been wishful thinking. And research by historians has made clear that 'war enthusiasm' was skin-deep.

To be sure, there was excitement, and cheering crowds gathered round the royal palaces in Berlin and London, but these demonstrations were quite small, composed mostly of well-to-do young men, and most prominent after war had been declared.

Up until then, pacifist and anti-war protests rivalled them - for example in Trafalgar Square as late as Sunday August 2, only two days before Britain came in.

On 31 July the London Stock Exchange was closed for the first time in its history, due to a run on the Bank of England's gold reserves and sell-offs of government bonds across Europe, while both in Britain and on the Continent queues formed outside savings banks and there was panic food-buying.

Although The Times consistently advocated British intervention, The Manchester Guardian remained unconvinced, and many civilian diarists expressed anxiety and foreboding.

In all the combatant countries political parties suspended their differences for the duration of the war effort.

But it seems to have been only later, once reports came in of heavy fighting and massive casualties, that a deeper pro-war consensus formed on both sides.

The public had not begun this business, but now they were in it they would see it through.

In Britain, hundreds of thousands flocked to the recruiting offices in late August and September. Although the volunteers had many motives, patriotism was certainly one of them.

And even after the campaigning bogged down into opposing lines of trenches, many still (without the benefit of hindsight) expected it to carry on for only a few more months. The short-war illusion did not end in 1914.

:: Professor David Stevenson is the author of With Our Backs To The Wall: Victory And Defeat in 1918, and 1914-1918: The History Of The First World War. He teaches at London School of Economics & Political Science

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Royal Navy 'To Rescue Britons From Libya'

By Alistair Bunkall, Defence Correspondent

The Royal Navy is preparing to rescue British nationals from Libya, Sky News understands.

HMS Enterprise is being moved into position off the coast of North Africa ready to be given the order to sail into Tripoli on Sunday morning.

She will moor offshore and her survey boat, Spitfire, will collect people from the Port of Tripoli.

A detachment armed personnel, usually Royal Marines, will provide force protection to the ship in event of attack.

The routine follows a similar scenario in 2011 during the uprising when HMS Cumberland, a Type 22 Frigate, evacuated foreign nationals and refuges from the civil war.

There has been a severe deterioration in the security situation

Although the United States used F16 fighter jets for air cover when their citizens left Libya by road for Tunisia last week, it is not thought any British aircraft will be involved in this mission.

Britain is one of the last countries to wind down its diplomatic mission in Libya following a severe deterioration in the security situation as rebel groups continue fighting each other.

France and America, two of the other principle players in the 2011 war, closed their embassies last week.

The Ministry of Defence said: "As the Foreign Office has made clear, the UK Government will provide assisted departure for a number of UK nationals before suspending consular operations on Monday.

"For operational reasons we will not discuss further details including whether, and in what ways, the MoD could support these efforts."

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National Sperm Bank Set To Benefit Thousands

A national sperm bank is to be launched to meet the demands of donor requirements across the UK.

It will be based at Birmingham Women's Hospital and will offer "an NHS based fully-integrated donor recruitment, screening and banking centre".

The Department for Health (DoH) says it will benefit both NHS and private patients of all ethnicities, including same-sex couples and single women.

For the first time, those from ethnic minority backgrounds will be able to choose from a range of culturally matched donors.

Funded by a £77,000 Government grant, the bank will be run by the National Gamete Donation Trust (NGDT) in partnership with Birmingham Women's Hospital 

Charles Lister, NGDT chair of trustees, said: "Essentially, the National Sperm Bank will increase the number of donor samples available for UK licensed clinics, both NHS and private, meaning that many more patients can be treated at a clinic of their choice, in a safe and secure manner, at the time when their treatment is needed."

There is currently a national shortage of sperm donors in the UK, especially in NHS clinics, and as patient numbers continue to rise, treating those who need donor sperm is said to be a major problem.

At present, some patients needing donor sperm are faced with few options and find themselves on waiting lists, having to use unregulated providers or having to stop treatment altogether, the trust said.

It is hoped the bank will reduce the number of patients putting themselves at risk by using unregulated sperm donation services.

A DoH spokesman said: "The National Sperm Bank will benefit all patients who need these services."

The service will launch in October.

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