Trident Review: US Warning Ahead Of Debate

By Alistair Bunkall, Defence Correspondent

Reducing or scrapping Britain's nuclear deterrent would have "a very negative effect on the special relationship", according to a senior former US diplomat.

John Bolton, who was the US Ambassador to the United Nations during George W Bush's Presidency, made the warning in an interview with Sky News days before the Government's Trident Alternative Review is published.

The review will form the basis of what is set to be a divisive political debate over the future of Trident, before a decision has to be made in 2016.

The US, the UK's closest military ally, will be watching closely. Although Washington might feel it inappropriate to air its views in public, there is no doubt opinions will be made perfectly clear through diplomatic channels.

John Bolton is known for often having robust opinions on matters of foreign affairs, but his view on Trident will be shared by many in Washington.

"It, (scrapping or reducing the deterrent) would also have a negative effect on Britain's own self-defence capabilities," he predicts.

"This is a very important decision, and one that I think, not just because of the special relationship but because of Britain's own needs, should see a complete replacement of Britain's nuclear submarine capability."

Nick Clegg has hinted he will not support a like-for-like replacement

In a sign of the inevitable coalition disagreements that will follow, Nick Clegg has given a clear hint that he won't support a like-for-like replacement of Britain's nuclear deterrent.

"I don't believe that the only future choice that we need to make is a carbon copy repetition of the Trident system as it is configured at the moment, namely ready to be fired at any minute, of any hour, of any day, 365 days a year, which was obviously appropriate for the Cold War environment in which the Trident system had to be ready to flatten Moscow at the push of a button," the Liberal Democrat leader and Deputy Prime Minister said.

Mr Clegg's comments are of particular significance not just because of the timing, but because he has had the final document sitting on his desk for more than a week now. David Cameron was also given a copy.

The 18-month study was insisted upon by the Liberal Democrats as part of the coalition agreement in 2010.

It was initially led by former defence minister Sir Nick Harvey but Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander took it on at the end of last year.

He will present its findings on Tuesday morning although many details will remain secret for national security reasons.

Four Vanguard Class submarines carry the Trident D5 ballistic missile

The review has worked to a narrow remit and has not examined the diplomatic reasons for maintaining a deterrent. Its focus has been to explore the viability and cost of different options. It is likely to cause tensions within the coalition.

Mr Cameron and Defence Secretary Philip Hammond have been clear about their support for a full renewal of the nuclear deterrent but the Liberal Democrats generally oppose that.

It's expected that one suggestion to come out of the review will be to cut the fleet in half to two submarines. This would result in the loss of the full time deterrent the UK currently maintains.

The Labour Party is conducting its own review although shadow defence secretary Jim Murphy told Sky News that he would like to see the constant deterrent retained.

"A Labour government would not scrap a nuclear deterrent," he said. "We would retain an minimal credible independent deterrent. How you configure that, how you drive savings out of it is something we have to look at."

Britain currently has four Vanguard Class submarines which carry the Trident D5 ballistic missile. At least one submarine is at sea at any one time, giving Britain a constant deterrent. Its whereabouts is known to only a handful of people.

But the submarines need replacing in 2028. A decision on their successor has been delayed until 2016 but already vital initial work has begun, should a full replacement be agreed upon.

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