Political Battle Over Who Can Make Scots Richer

The battle for Scotland moved to a scrap over who would put more money in the pockets of the Scottish people as conflicting economic visions were presented by each side.

Westminster claimed staying in the union would mean a £1,400 a year "UK dividend" for Scottish people, while the Scottish Government said splitting would give each person a £1,000 "bonus of independence".

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond both presented their financial cases to the people of Scotland at the same time in buildings on opposite sides of the road in Edinburgh.

Mr Salmond said his financial assessment found Scotland would be £5bn better off by 2029 if the country opted for independence in September's referendum.

He promised to put more money in the pockets of Scottish families without raising taxes from an "increase in productivity".

He said: "Scotland is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, more prosperous per head than the UK, France and Japan, but we need the powers of independence to ensure that that wealth properly benefits everyone in our society.

"That wealth means we will start life as an independent nation with strong finances and huge economic potential."

But Mr Alexander cautioned that Scotland would face higher interest payment on Government debt if it left the union and that start-up costs would be £1.5bn alone.

The Westminster and Holyrood governments are both trying to woo voters

Presenting his financial case, Mr Alexander said: "Today we have shown that, by staying together, Scotland's future will be safer, with stronger finances and a more progressive society.

"Because as a United Kingdom we can pool resources and share risks it means a UK dividend of £1,400 a year for every man, woman and child in Scotland.

"That dividend is our share of a more prosperous future. It is the money that will pay for better public services and a fairer society."

Mr Alexander's delivery was dealt a blow after the academic behind the research claimed the Treasury had "badly misrepresented" it.

Patrick Dunleavy, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics (LSE), says that when Treasury officials used his research to calculate the start-up costs of independence, they overstated the figure by 12 times.

Officials had previously briefed that, partly based on the research of Professor Dunleavy, they estimated the start-up costs for an independent Scottish Government at £2.7bn - although this was not the figure used by Mr Alexander in his speech.

Professor Dunleavy wrote on Twitter: "UK Treasury press release on Scotland costs of government badly misrepresents LSE research.

"Appears to take minimum Whitehall reorganisation cost of £15m and multiply by 180 agencies to get £2.7bn. Overstates maybe 12 times?"

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Scotland Debate Descends Into Statistical Farce

If ever you were after an example of everything that's wrong with political economics today, you need look no further than the debate over Scottish independence.

This is an issue of immense importance - one that will define these two countries for centuries. And yet it has descended into a statistical farce.

According to the "yes" camp, independent Scots would be £1,000 better off; Danny Alexander and the Treasury think they'll be £1,400 worse off.

The Treasury's £1,400-a-person figure represents the total difference between Scottish and rest-of-the-UK government deficits by 2035 (but expressed in terms of 2016/17 money).

This £1,400 is comprised of: extra borrowing costs an independent Scotland would face, the cost of long-term North Sea decline and the cost of an ageing population and higher public spending. All that set against the higher oil revenues an independent Scotland would enjoy.

Scotland's £1,000-a-head number is based on something else entirely: the extra tax revenue the country will derive from having higher employment and greater productivity growth - 2.5% as opposed to the 2.2% projected by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

All of that adds up to £5bn a year by 2029 which, according to Alex Salmond, works out as £1,000 a person.

Having established that these numbers aren't strictly comparable, we then find that the two sides' estimates of an independent Scotland's deficit in 2016/17, the year of possible independence, also disagree widely.

Both agree that the rest of the UK's deficit will, by then, be 2.4% of GDP. But they differ on what Scotland's will be.

Danny Alexander (L) and Alex Salmond

The SNP says 2.8% of GDP. The Treasury says between 5.2% and 5.5% of GDP, citing the Glasgow-based Centre for Public Policy for Regions and the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

These numbers differ in large part because of their assessment of revenues from North Sea oil.

The OBR thinks these revenues are heading downwards, or at best plateauing. The SNP, using numbers from the industry group Oil and Gas UK, disagrees, and thinks they will increase.

HMT estimates the oil and gas tax take in 2016/17 will be £2.9bn, the SNP's comparable figure is £6.9bn.

It is not merely that these figures are different; they are, single-handedly, able to change the entire outlook for the country's finances.

So who should one believe? Or, to put it more appropriately, whose sums are the least egregious?

In the case of the Treasury, the supposed source for their initial estimate of how much it would cost to set up a Government north of the border, Patrick Dunleavy, described their figures as "bizarrely inaccurate".

The SNP's £1,000 a head dividend, meanwhile, is predicated on a best-case scenario rather than a cautious forecast for growth.

The Treasury's is based on independent numbers. I tend to prefer using independent forecasts, provided they're from reputable organisations, as these are.

But then this is the greyest of grey areas. It's a useful reminder of the fact that economics doesn't have answers to everything. Trying to pretend it only devalues your case - and your credibility.

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Harris 'Had Sexual Affair' With Complainant

By Nick Pisa, Sky News Reporter

Entertainer Rolf Harris has admitted in court that he is a "touchy feely sort of person" but denied ever indecently assaulting women.

Harris, 84, was giving evidence at his trial where he is accused of targeting four victims including a friend of his daughter Bindi.

Dressed in a dark pin-striped suit and tie he was specifically asked about the allegation involving his daughter's friend during a family holiday in 1978.

Southwark Crown Court heard the woman was 13 when Harris allegedly assaulted her in a Hawaii hotel room after she took a shower, and on a beach.

She has told the court she was assaulted by Harris in Australia later on the same holiday, claiming he touched her as she lay in bed next to a sleeping Bindi.

Harris said: "I have no recollection of that," adding it "never happened".

The entertainer denies 12 counts of indecent assault

His defence barrister Sonia Woodley asked him if he had ever hugged the woman to which he replied: "Yes, I have hugged her. I'm a touchy feely sort of person. I normally hug anyone that I get on on with."

When asked by Ms Woodley if he had ever done it in a sexual way he replied: "No," before going on to deny assaulting the woman after she stepped out of the shower.

Harris said his relationship with the alleged victim "changed slowly" and "became physical" when she turned 18 years old.

Harris admitted he felt "highly embarrassed" by it as well as having a "guilty feeling".

He recalled going into the spare room of his house in Bray to take the alleged victim a cup of tea when she "kicked off the duvet to reveal her bare legs".

The court heard about his professional career and portrait of the Queen

He added: "She grabbed my elbow and seemed to indicate she wanted me to sit on the bed, which I did. It seemed to me she was being very flirtatious. 

"It was very flattering, this young lady showing an interest in me."

Harris, who was 53 at the time, said he "touched the outside of her leg" before leaving the room.

He added: "This is all highly embarrassing. I was a married man, she was much younger. I shouldn't have been doing it."

When asked by Ms Woodley if he thought the victim was a "willing participant" he replied "Yes."

He went on to say that a "sexual chemistry" developed between the pair.

Harris insisted she was "willing" and added: "It was illicit, I had a guilty feeling. I was a married man, it was...she was Bindi's friend."

Harris also said the couple had oral sex in a secluded wood near his home and again said the woman had "started it" adding "she instigated the whole thing". 

Harris denies 12 counts of assaulting four women aged between seven or eight and 19 years old between 1968 and 1986.

Earlier he told the court about his showbusiness and singing career, at one point briefly singing his hit song Jake The Peg.

There was laughter in court as he imitated the noise of his trademark "wobble board" and moved his arms to show the technique.

Ms Woodley told the jury Harris had two paintings exhibited at the Royal Academy and had painted a portrait of the Queen.

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Scotland World Cup Friendly Match-Fixing Probe

Officers are investigating match-fixing claims over tonight's World Cup friendly between Nigeria and Scotland, Sky sources say.

The game is due to be played at Fulham's Craven Cottage ground in London.

The National Crime Agency, which investigates serious and organised crime, is now probing what it thinks could be an attempt to fix the match.

Scotland v World Cup-bound Nigeria is part of a series of warm-up matches ahead of the tournament in Brazil next month.

There is no suggestion that the game at Craven Cottage will be scrapped.

Stephen Keshi, Nigeria's head coach, said his side were just focused on preparing for the World Cup.

The match is due to be played at Fulham's Craven Cottage ground

"We are not here for that - we are here to play and to, you know, see our team improve and get ready for the World Cup so I don't know, maybe some sort of joke is around the corner and it is not very pleasant, you know?"

The investigation was launched after the match was "red-flagged" over the weekend.

Sky's Scotland correspondent James Matthews said Nigeria is the 'home' side and selected the Fulham ground as the venue.

He said: "The National Crime Agency (NCA) is investigating what it believes may be an attempt to fix the match.

"No Scotland players are involved or under any suspicion but the NCA has been liaising with the football authorities in Scotland and Nigeria."

Matthews added: "The Scottish Football Association has said it is liaising with the relevant authorities and is preparing for the game as normal.

"It is my understanding the gambling commission has also issued an alert - a warning - to bookmakers around the world to keep an eye on betting patterns ahead not only of the Nigeria/Scotland game but other friendlies on Wednesday evening."

A spokesman said the agency "will from time to time provide operational detail necessary for public reassurance purposes".

He added: "It does not routinely confirm or deny the existence of specific operations or provide ongoing commentary on operational activity."

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Taxman Investigations Rake In Record £24bn

A record £23.9bn has been collected through investigations by taxmen over the last year, official figures have revealed.

The total was an increase of £3.2bn on the previous 12-month period and £9bn on three years ago.

HM Revenue and Customs said it was nearly £1 billion above the target set by Chancellor George Osborne in his 2013 autumn statement.

More than £8bn has been raked in from large business, £1bn from criminals and £2.7bn through tackling avoidance schemes in the courts.

Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury David Gauke said: "The Government supports the hard-working, honest majority of taxpayers that play by the rules, and is determined to tackle the minority that seek to avoid paying the taxes they owe.

"We set HMRC ambitious targets to increase its yield and the figures published today demonstrate that HMRC is successfully meeting these challenges.

"It also sends a clear signal - HMRC will pursue those seeking to avoid their responsibilities and will collect the taxes that are due."

HMRC investigated the tax affairs of 237,215 people in 2012/13, compared with around 119,000 in 2011/12.

In 2013, 690 tax fraudsters and benefit cheats were convicted following probes by HMRC officials.

The number was an increase on the 477 convictions in the previous 12 months - and led to sentences totalling 355 years in prison.

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Warning Over Growing Numbers Of Blind Children

By Becky Johnson, Sky Correspondent

The number of blind or partially sighted children has increased due to a rise in survival rates of severely premature babies.

According to the charity Blind Children UK, the earlier a child is born the greater the risk of vision impairment. One in 20 children born severely premature is likely to be blind.

There has been a 9% rise in the number of children registered blind or partially sighted since 2006. Among under-fives the number has gone up by 12%.

The charity says despite increasing numbers of children being affected, a quarter of parents said they had to wait longer than a year for their child to be diagnosed.

Sally Freeman from Blind Children UK said: "The child won't know they have a visual impairment and if it's the first time for the parents, then they won't know there's a visual impairment involved.

"So the child could have a visual impairment for a while before they are diagnosed."

Fadzie Karima has no sight in her right eye and tunnel vision in her left eye.

The 13-year-old told Sky News: "I usually bump into stuff if I'm not being careful and it takes more concentration to do things like writing or using a computer."

She was diagnosed with juvenile glaucoma two years ago. Her mother, Ericah, wishes she had noticed sooner that her daughter was having difficulties.

"Had we gone for regular eye tests it would have been picked up a lot earlier but I didn't see the need for it," she said.

She is backing a campaign to urge other parents to get their children's eyesight checked.

The campaign also has the backing of Lord Holmes, the blind Paralympic swimmer.

He said: "Every day four children in the UK are registered blind or partially sighted.

"Sight loss can leave children feeling isolated and afraid - I know this from personal experience.

"Blind Children UK helps gives children the skills, confidence and support to enable them to enjoy their childhood and reach their potential as adults."

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Lost Yachtsman Was Fulfilling Lifelong Dream

The familiies of lost Cheeki Rafiki sailors Paul Goslin and James Male have paid tribute to their loved ones.

James Male's family say sailing was a way of life he really loved

Mr Goslin, 56, from West Camel, Somerset, and Mr Male, 23, from Southampton, were on the yacht with Andrew Bridge, 22, and Steve Warren, 52, when it went missing enroute from Antigua to the UK on May 15.

The upturned 40ft yacht was found by the US Navy on Friday 1,000 miles from the Massachusetts coast, with no signs of life and its life raft still stored on board.

In a statement issued through the Foreign Office, the Goslin family said: "As you can imagine we were deeply saddened by the news on Friday night and are struggling to come to terms with the fact that Paul, our wonderful husband, son, father, grandfather, won't be found alive and returned home to us. 

"Paul was deeply loving and exceptionally intelligent and we know will be missed by everyone that knew him.

"Paul had been a passionate sailor for many years and loved everything to do with the water.  He'd been talking about sailing across the Atlantic for many years. 

The overturned hull of Cheeki Rafiki. Pic: US Coast Guard District 1

"We are therefore, trying to take some comfort in the knowledge that he was fulfilling one of his lifelong dreams."

Mr Male's family said in a statement that they were "deeply saddened" by Friday's developments.

They added: "James was a passionate sailor, surfer, kayaker and all round water sport enthusiast as well as being a keen snowboarder and outdoor instructor. 

"He loved being in the outdoors and on the water teaching new skills to people. We must therefore try to take some comfort in the knowledge that he was doing something he really loved."

The yacht Cheeki Rafiki

Both families thanked all those who had supported them during a difficult week, adding that they had drawn strength from the other families. 

They also thanked those involved in the search "especially the US and Canadian Coast Guards, the US Navy, the RAF, the merchant vessels and smaller yachts sailing through the area". 

The UK Government, especially the Foreign Office, was also praised for support that was "second to none".

Thanking the media as well, each family asked for the space and time to remember Paul and James.

Andrew Bridge was the skipper of Cheeki Rafiki

The family of the yacht skipper, Mr Bridge, from Farnham, Surrey, also thanked the search teams and paid tribute to the experienced sailor.

In a statement yesterday they said: "Andrew will be dearly missed by everyone who knew him. Our thoughts and condolences go out to the families of the rest of the crew on the Cheeki Rafiki.

The family of Mr Warren, from Bridgwater, Somerset, said yesterday: "From the beginning we, together with the other families involved, have continued to hold out hope that he would be found alive. The US Coast Guard have led an exceptional search.

"This is now an incredibly difficult time for all the family."

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Second Prisoner Goes On Run From Same Jail

A prisoner has gone on the run from a Suffolk jail - less than 48 hours since another man absconded from the same facility.

Police issued an appeal after they were contacted last night by officials at Hollesley Bay prison, who informed them Lewis Powter was no longer at the premises.

The 30-year-old - who has a Dennis the Menace tattoo on his right arm -  was last seen at 6.50pm and was not present for the 8pm roll check.

He was serving an indeterminate sentence for grievous bodily harm with intent, and is described as white, around 5ft 10ins, of medium build, with brown hair, blue eyes and is clean shaven.

The last time Powter was seen he was wearing a blue jumper with a white t-shirt underneath, blue jeans and white Ralph Lauren trainers.

Police say he has connections in the Cambridgeshire area.

Paul Oddysses absconded from Hollesley Bay prison on Saturday

It comes after Hollesley Bay contacted Suffolk Police just after 1pm on Saturday reporting that 49-year-old Paul Oddysses had left the premises.

Oddysses, who was serving a life sentence for attempted robbery and robbery with a firearm, is described as white, around 5ft 6ins, of thin build, with brown hair, brown eyes and clean shaven.

After Oddysses' disappearance, a Ministry of Justice spokeswoman said: "The Justice Secretary has been clear that keeping the public safe is our priority and has ordered immediate and major changes to tighten up temporary release processes and open prison eligibility.

"Absconds have reached record lows under this Government - down 80% over the last 10 years - but each and every incident is taken seriously, with the police contacted as a matter of urgency.

"Open prisons and temporary licence are an important tool in rehabilitating long term offenders but not at the expense of public safety."

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'Murder Probe' As Briton Found Dead In Bali

A British woman who was found dead on the Indonesian island of Bali may have been murdered, according to reports.

The victim has been named locally as Anne-Marie Drozdz, who was believed to be in her forties.

Her body was found on Thursday afternoon inside a villa in the town of Ubud, a popular tourist destination.

Reports said she had been renting the property since May 17.

The villa where Ms Drozdz's body was discovered

Indonesian police suspect the woman may have been murdered, according to news reports.

A spokeswoman for the Foreign Office would not confirm this, but said: "We are aware of the death of a British national in Bali and are providing consular assistance to the family."

The Jakarta Post said the body was taken to Sanglah Central Hospital, 14 miles away in the island's capital Denpasar, where an external examination found she had been dead for several hours by the time her body was discovered.

A murder investigation has been launched

A police spokesman told the AFP news agency there were signs the rented villa had been broken into.

He said: "The door was damaged and there were dried up pools of blood on the floor.

"She was found by the owner of the villa lying dead on the floor with a black cloth over her face."

Ms Drozdz had been renting the villa since May 17, reports say

The head of forensics at Sanglah Central Hospital, Ida Bagus Putu Alitin, told AFP that the body showed bruises on the neck and around the mouth.

"But we will wait until permission from her family and police to carry out an autopsy," he said.

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Big Tweet For Missing Children Gets Under Way

By Gerard Tubb, Sky News Correspondent

Campaigners are hoping to reunite missing children with their families by recruiting social media users to join a day of action today.

It is estimated that 140,000 children and young people go missing in the UK every year according to the charity Missing People.

The Big Tweet for Missing Children will see a different child's appeal and photograph posted on Twitter every 30 minutes today under the hashtag #bigtweet.

With the help of TV personalities including Stephen Fry, organisers hope to improve on the 58,000 retweets they achieved last year which are believed to have resulted in at least two missing children being found.

An extension to the Child Rescue Alert system has also become operational, using text and email to send messages about missing children whose lives are believed to be at immediate risk.

The Child Exploitation and Online Protection Centre (CEOP) which issues six to eight alerts each year, hopes a million people will sign up though its website to receive them.

Coral Jones with her daughter April who was abducted in 2012

The new service has been welcomed by Coral Jones, the mother of April Jones whose abduction from her home town of Machynlleth, Powys, in October 2012 triggered one of the alerts.

"You don't know what's around the corner, it could be your child next," she said.

"I think everyone should sign up because you never know what will happen where you are."

Only a small fraction of missing children are known to have been taken by someone, with police statistics from 2011/12 showing 675 children and young people were the victim of an abduction or attempted abduction.

In most cases the perpetrator was a parent (17%) or someone the youngster knew but was not related to (35%), but 42% of incidents involved strangers.

Kevin Gosden, from Doncaster, whose son Andrew went missing in 2007 aged 14 and has never been seen since, is encouraging people to support both campaigns, even if it does not result in him finding Andrew.

"If it does something to raise awareness of this issue, and it gets families to think about that and talk with their kids to be sure that they know the number for Missing People - 116 000 - then I think that also is a good thing," he said.

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